Everyone wants to buy at the bottom. But do you really know where the bottom is?

“Are we close to the bottom?”, “Should I wait a little longer? Could home prices fall further?”, “If I can buy at the lowest point, wouldn’t I be the biggest winner?”

Many prospective homebuyers have probably had these thoughts at some point. After experiencing significant fluctuations in the housing market over the past few years, it is natural for buyers to want to wait until the market is at its weakest and prices are at their lowest before making a move. But in reality, the idea of a “true bottom” is largely theoretical rather than something that can be precisely identified in real time.

Let me ask you a question: according to this chart, did Toronto’s home prices peak in 2025? The honest answer is—we don’t know yet. To know for certain, we would need the benefit of hindsight. Only after time has passed can an analyst look back and definitively point to the peak and say, “this was it.”

The same concept applies to the “bottom.” We may be able to identify that 2025 was a peak within a historical snapshot, but that conclusion can always change as new data emerges in the future. In fact, it is only in hindsight that someone might be able to identify the one buyer who truly purchased at the absolute bottom of a dip within this decade—out of tens of thousands of transactions, there can only be one such case. Statistically, the odds of being that individual are roughly one in tens of thousands.

According to the latest data released by TRREB for July 2026, the GTA resale housing market showed an interesting shift compared with the same period last year. There were 5,995 home sales in July, a slight 0.9% decrease year-over-year. However, new listings fell significantly to 14,484, down 17.8% from July 2025. In other words, the number of buyers has not increased significantly, but the supply of available homes has decreased considerably. For buyers who are actively looking for a property, this could gradually translate into more competition. As a result, it is difficult to describe the current GTA housing market simply as either “at the bottom” or “heading for another major decline.” Prices are still adjusting, but supply is tightening, making this a market worth watching closely as conditions continue to evolve.

For prospective buyers, instead of constantly trying to predict “How low will prices go?”, perhaps the more important question is: “At this price, is the property already worth buying for me?”

Because the decision to buy should never be based on the home price alone. Is your income stable? Is the monthly mortgage payment within a comfortable range? Are you prepared for the down payment and closing costs?

How long do you plan to hold the property? And most importantly, does the property you are considering actually meet your needs?

For example, suppose a home was originally listed at $1 million and eventually sold for $950,000. You might feel that you “bought at the bottom.” But if you cannot comfortably afford the monthly mortgage payments, or you only plan to hold the property for two or three years, that so-called “bottom” may not actually be meaningful to you. On the other hand, if the market falls another 5%, but you keep waiting for an even better price and end up missing a property that genuinely suits your needs, only to see the market stabilize afterward, waiting also comes with an opportunity cost.

Buying a home is not a game of guessing the lowest price. The smartest buyer is not necessarily the person who bought at the absolute lowest price in the market. It is the person who can make a well-informed decision when the price is reasonable, the property is suitable, and the purchase is financially manageable. So instead of constantly asking: “Is this the bottom of the housing market?”

Ask yourself: “If the price, location, condition, and monthly carrying costs of this property all fit my needs, am I ready to make the move?”

There will always be another price in the market. But the right property and the right opportunity for you may not come around again.

Buying at the bottom is only a viable strategy if you expect the market to recover within your planned timeframe. But having a clear plan, reliable data, and a realistic budget is what makes a truly sound home-buying strategy.

However, predicting the highs and lows of the market is never easy. With years of real estate experience, Realtor Toronto can help you evaluate market trends and the true value of a property to determine whether the time is right to buy or sell.

If you’re considering buying or selling, feel free to contact us for professional advice and market insights.